Written By Dr. Raphael Nyarkotey Obu - The Shai-Osudoku constituency is part of the constituencies in the Greater-Accra Region and part of the seven constituencies in the Dangme community which are considered as stronghold of the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC). It has presented two Members as Parliamentarians on the ticket of the NDC. No other party has won the election before. All the two had opportunities during their term of office by holding key positions in government but people think they did not live up to expectation.
I travel the community in recent times. I see the pains and sacrifices made by ordinary people every day in the Dangme land. I once saw an elderly woman walking and falling down at the road side in Dodowa, not to talk of our farmers in our community who are struggling to feed their family and send their children to school. All these and others that I have realized this year have made the youth to involve themselves into this year’s elections leading to so many circumstances.
It is for these and other reasons that the youth have involved themselves in the constituency as they have been betrayed by the past NDC members of parliament and some leaders in the constituency that do not care.
The youth want a leader with a vision of optimism, self-confident and a prosperous constituency with a strong and thriving democratic society in which mutual trust and economic opportunities exist for all, irrespective of their Political alignment.
Analysis of Linda Akweley Ocloo on NDC ticket
Linda Akweley Ocloo is the only female candidate on the ticket of the NDC since 1996. She has big tasks ahead in the constituency than any other candidate on the ticket of the NDC who has contested before. The reason being that she came at a time with lots of controversies, a time when the people are hungry for development in the constituency, a time when the people believed Kpessa Whyte is the best candidate to represent the NDC than any other candidate, a time when the people believed Shai-Osudoku needed a lift in the country and someone who can hear their voice.
Linda’s task is a huge one, being that, she has to pull more votes than her predecessor Hon. David Assumeng’s 18,089 votes in 2012(Tab 1). This would make her a good candidate for future parliamentary election in 2020 and also a good case for her party in the event that the NDC wins the election in 2016 for any appointment consideration. Any votes that she pull to win the election which falls below the 18,089 votes could be suicidal for political ambition in the future in 2020. For instance, if she wins the election in 2016 with a vote of less than 18,089 votes there is no way she can contest in 2020 because it shows her unpopularity in the constituency and she being not marketable. It could make her the first candidate on the ticket of the NDC in the constituency to go for only one term and this could also cause the political doom for future women who want to contest the parliamentary seat in the constituency.
What could also save her political Dream?
Now to achieve more votes she needs to appeal to the women as this is the first time a woman is contesting on the ticket of the NDC in the constituency and it is therefore the time for the women to also run the affairs of the constituency. The women could vote massively for her so that she pulls more vote than 18,089 votes already available. If this happens then it could mean a political apoptosis for whoever wants to contest her in 2020.
Who could take over from her if she fails in 2020?
If she fails to win the election with more votes than 18,089 or lose the election then her political dreams are over in the constituency. Now, it is likely Dr. Kpessa Whyte will step in or one of the Kpessa’s team members could be sponsored to spring up to contest.However, whoever wants to take over from her from Kpessa’s team would have to start a serious campaign from now by engaging in social interventions project et al for the community before announcing his or her ambition in 2020.
Anything apart from this could still cause them to lose the seat again. Alternatively, Kpessa Whyte team should put everything aside and bury all pride to support her political carrier for the world to see and put the Team Kpessa camp somewhere. But if they fail, in the near future the election would still be in the camps of these two: ‘Team Ocloo and Team Kpessa’ and the Ocloo camp still have the chance to win hands down again irrespective of whoever they introduce after Linda. So the only thing needed for Kpessa’s camp now is humility and forgo whatever happens to join her now.
If Dr. Kpessa Whyte also failed to contest in 2020(Fig 1), then probably Jones Ayertey has a chance to spring up but his political ambition now in the constituency is very shaky considering so many circumstances and what I have heard in the constituency.
But he still has a chance if and only if he still wants to contest or revamp his ambition in the constituency. There are certain things he has to do for massive youth support and revolution to champion his project, he shouldn’t take it lightly. Life is up and down, we fall, we rise, we can make amends, we can seek forgiveness et al. He should start it now. Whatever went wrong in the cause of his association with Dr. Kpessa Whyte camp can be corrected if he has a future plan.
The Future of NDC in the Constituency
The NDC executives positions itself need a total overhauling (Fig 2) in the near future as they are so many counter accusations. Party loyalists are not happy with some turn of events and I can’t wait to see how it would go. I expect more energetic youth and intellectual minded people to occupy some key positions in the constituency. ‘Charlatans’ must be booted out to make the party attractive in the constituency. People who want something good, developmental minded people should be introduced to contest executive positions to aid development. Politics is a serious business and not a child’s play.
The Case of the NPP
This year is a critical and good moment for the NPP to wrestle the seat from the NDC but I also fear for one thing that is if they are not careful the PPP could rather surprise them partly because the constituents also believed in voting for an alternative party with a good candidate at the expense of the NPP. This was manifested in the 2000 election where National Reform Party (NRP) even took the second position at the expense of the NPP (Tab 2 ). The Shai-Osudoku constituents are very interesting people, also in 2012 election, the PPP candidate Emmanuel Maatey Tetteh surprisingly had 5,069(Tab 5 ) meanwhile in 2008 as a new entrant on the ticket of the CPP he had 1,879(Tab 4) additional 3,190 votes was gained.
This year, Nene Stephen Oyortey currently needs just 6,000(Fig 3) votes to add to what Dugan had in 2012(Tab 5 ) this will take Oyortey to 12,991(Fig 4)bringing Linda to 12, 089(Fig 5) allowing Oyortey to win the seat with just 902 votes.
How Can Oyortey get this Operation 6,000votes to win the seat?
From his own backyard getting about 90% of the votes from Kordiebe, Doryumu, Jorpanya, Osuwem and invading Dodowa township entirety with 60% of the Votes (Fig 6). Oyortey must declare operation additional 6,000 votes to the NPP’s constant vote in any election in the constituency. Oyortey should employ the services of Elder Renney Noah to also involve the campaign. Oyortey must release the NPP Arsenal in the constituency. Everyone should get on board. They should preach the message of change and why change is important now in the constituency. Why the NDC has ruled them for 23 unimpressive years in the constituency with nothing to boast of compared to other Dangme constituencies. Nene must do everything possible to bring additional 6,000votes into the constituency from his own performance.
Oyortey should also pray so that more fire would be unleashed in the Kpessa and Ocloo’s camp so that they can’t smoke peace pipe so as to give him an upper hand.
If Nene is unable to win the seat for this year it could be a suicidal also for him in 2020 as unlike the NDC the NPP has more capable persons to come on board to unseat him in the primaries. The likes of Daniel Dei Mensah, Elder Noah are the two potential forces he has to reckon with but is likely Daniel Dei Mensah(Fig 7) will unseat him at the expense of Elder Noah unless the Elder corrects some of his mistakes that plunged him to lose the primaries. The NPP executives also need a total overhauling in the constituency as there are so much internal wrangling making things difficult for Oyortey to conduct his campaign smoothly.
The case of the PPP
Unlike Oyortey ,Emmannuel Maatey Tetteh needs additional 7,025votes(Fig 8) before he could cause a surprise to unseat the NDC to win the seat. In 2012, he was able to pull additional 3,190 votes (Fig 9) when he left the CPP to PPP. What can help him is the constituent lackadaisical attitude towards the NPP in giving the votes to any other party if they feel dissatisfied with the NDC which was manifested in 2000 election where NRP took the second position(Tab 2) In 2008 as a new entrant on the ticket of the CPP he had 1,879(Tab 4 ). Tetteh was previously tipped to strongly challenge the NDC but his performance on Ghone on the State of the Nation’s made a lot of people to rethink about his candidacy and quality.
Most of the people believed that he should have performed better on national platform like this because he being a teacher should have laid out his policies very well when he had the opportunity but he rather messed up where Nana Aba has to even question their credibility and asked them whether they didn’t research well before coming on set.
The Case of the CPP
It will take heaven for the CPP Candidate to make in-roads in the constituency judging from the figures between him and the NDC and his persona. In 2012, he had 517 votes. He would need additional 17,850 votes before he can unseat the NDC’s Linda Akweley Ocloo.
Data Representation and Analysis
Data analysis consists of examining, categorizing, tabulating or otherwise recombining the evidence, to address the initial propositions of the study. Data obtained was processed using tables from 1992 to 2012 from the constituency. Analysis was carried out using figures difference of parliamentary election held in a particular election year for assessment upon which findings and conclusion were drawn.
Table of Parliamentary Election Held in the Shai –Osudoku Constituency from 1996-2012
Table 1: Shai-Osudoku 1996
Michael Afedi Gizo
Kwame Tetteh – Korly Agban
John Awuku Dziwornu
Table 2: Shai-Osudoku 2000
Table 3: Shai-Osudoku 2004
David Tetteh Assumeng
Gloria Afua Akuffo
Elias Nomo Tetteh
Rex Isaac Kofi Addae
Table 4: Shai-Osudoku 2008
David Tetteh Assumeng
Daniel Christian Dugan
Emmanuel Martey Tetteh
Table 5: Shai-Osudoku 2012
David Tetteh Assumeng
Daniel Christian Dugan
Emmanuel Martey Tetteh
Solomon Narh Dorh
What could also happen in 2016 based on the parties’ performance in 2008 and 2012 elections?
Findings of the Study.
Linda Akweley Ocloo on the ticket of the NDC has a huge task to save the party from losing the seat come December 7, 2016.
She also has a big task to transform the constituency eventaully if she wins the election as expectations are very high in the constituency.
She has another big task to save the image of women in the constituency if she wins the election and her performance in government to pave way for future women consdering the position.
If she wins the election she sets an unprecedented history of being the first woman on the ticket of the NDC in the constituency to contest the primary and win the major election and also the second woman in the Dangme land to win the seat for the NDC.
Linda Ocloo must win the electioon with heavy numbers above the 18,089 gained by Hon. David Tetteeh Assumeng to show that she is marketable and also for her prospective parliamentary election in 2020 or anything apart from that is suicidal for her.
Dr. Michael Kpessa Whyte prospective parliamnetary bid would also depend on his involvement with Linda Ocloo parliamentary ambition and support he renders to her for the world to see anything as apart from this would still be suicidal for him or any member from his team who desires to compete.
They should quickely dissolve the ‘Team Kpessa and Team Ocloo’ in the constituency for a uniform party otherwise in the near future the primaries would still be on this same camp and it could still be suicidal for Kpessa’s camp.
If Dr. Michael Kpessa Whyte is still nursing a prospective parliamentary ambition then it should start from now and every support he renders he should published it in the media so people see what he is doing or has done for her during her term of office this would give him a good image for his future parliamnetary project as the Shai-Osudoku people are unpredictable and whatever they hear they act on it whether negatively or positively.
The research also revealed that time is indeed running out for the NDC linda Akweley Ocloo as Nene Stephen Oyortey of the NPP is her major threat and likely to upset her if she sleeps.
The NPP stephen Oyortey has a big opportunity and chance to win the parliamentary seat now as the parliamentary race now is a 50: 50 affairs in the constituency.
The research has proven that interesting times is indeed ahead for the NDC and time is indeed running out for the NDC if they sleep.
The research revealed a two horse race constiruency affairs which is between NDC and NPP.
In conclusion I cannot deceive myself as a political scientist who has focused my research extensively in the Dangme people behavior in the elections that all is well within the camp of the NDC in the Shai-Osudoku constituency and other Dangme land in entirety.
I cannot tell outright that the NDC Linda Akweley Ocloo can win this seat without the involvement of all the NDC faithful in the constituency. She needs each and every Tom, Dick and Harry to be able to save her political ambition in the constituency.
It is a 50:50 affair now in the constituency and whoever plays the political cards well can win the seat.
The NPP is capable of winning the seat at the moment if the NDC deceive themselves that they still have the dominance over the people.
Raphael N. Obu(2016)A look at Dangme Community Parlimentary voting pattern: A comparative review of elections Held in the various constituencies and what is likely to Happen in 2016 between NDC and NPP in the Dangme Constituency. Publsihed in Dangme news September edition.
Shai-Osudoku : Elections 2000 | Ghana Election Results | Ghana ...ghanaelections.peacefmonline.com/pages/2000/constituency/133/
Shai-Osudoku : Elections 2004 | Ghana Election Results | Ghana ...
Shai-Osudoku : Elections 2008 | Ghana Election Results | Ghana ...
Shai-Osudoku : Elections 2012 | Ghana Election Results | Ghana ...
What does a Political Scientist do? - Sokanu
Political science - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Parliamentary system - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Parliamentary Service | Parliament of Ghana
Below is a downloadable copy of the article.
- Smaller Small Medium Big Bigger
- Default Helvetica Segoe Georgia Times
- Reading Mode